Isinqumo sakamuva seNkantolo Ephakeme yase-US sokususa iningi lentela yomhlaba wonke ebekwe nguDonald Trump siphawula ushintsho olukhulu enqubomgomo yezohwebo yezwe futhi sithumela amagagasi okushaqisayo kubalingani bayo bezohwebo emhlabeni wonke. Inkantolo ephakeme yaphetha ngokuthi i-White House isebenzise kabi amandla ayo aphuthumayo ukuze ibeke intela ebanzi cishe kubo bonke abalingani bayo bezohwebo, kuhlanganise nalabo abaseYurophu.
Kunokuba alahle isu lakhe lokuvikela, uTrump uphendule ngokhahlo ngokumelene nabahluleli futhi wamemezela intela entsha yomhlaba wonke engu-10% —asebeqalile ukuyisebenzisa — ngokusekelwe kwezinye izizathu zomthetho. Umyalezo oya eYurophu, eSpain, nakwamanye amazwe angamalungu ucacile: ukweqisa kwezomthetho kulungisiwe, kodwa ingcindezi yentela yaseWashington ayikanyamalala ; ishintshe isimo kuphela.
Yini ngempela enqunywe yiNkantolo Ephakeme yase-US?
Ngevoti eliyi -6-3 , iNkantolo Ephakeme yase-US yanquma ukuthi uTrump weqe igunya lakhe ngokusebenzisa uMthetho Wezamandla Ezomnotho Eziphuthumayo Zamazwe Ngamazwe (i-IEEPA, 1977) njengesizathu sokubeka intela enkulu, "efanayo" emazweni amaningi. Umthetho unikeza umongameli amandla abanzi ezimweni zokuphepha kwezwe noma eziphuthumayo kwezomnotho, kodwa awukhulumi ngokusobala ngokufakwa kwentela.
IJaji Eliyinhloko uJohn Roberts , ngokombono weningi, ugcizelele ukuthi lapho iCongress inikeza iGatsha Eliphezulu amandla okukhokhisa intela yokungenisa impahla, yenza lokho " ngokusobala nangemingcele ," into engenjalo ngaphansi kwe-IEEPA. Uphinde wagcizelela ukuthi akekho umongameli cishe eminyakeni engamashumi amahlanu eyedlule owasebenzisa leso sigaba ukusungula amanani okuhweba amakhulu kangaka, okuqinisa umqondo wokusetshenziswa kabi kwamandla kamongameli.
Lesi sinqumo senza amanani entela aziwa ngokuthi amanani entela " oSuku Lokukhululeka ", amenyezelwe mhla zi-2 kuMbasa 2025, abeka amanani entela aphakathi kuka- 10% no-50% ekungenisweni okuvela emazweni amaningi. Siphinde simise amanye amanani entela asetshenziswa ngaphansi kwesizathu sokulwa nokushushumbiswa kwe -fentanyl evela emazweni afana neMexico, iCanada, neShayina. Lesi sinqumo asithinti amanye amanani entela asekelwe emithethweni ehlukene, njengaleyo ehlobene nensimbi, i-aluminium, noma izimoto ezingeniswe ngaphansi kwemithethonqubo yokuphepha kwezwe.
Abahluleli ababili abaqokwe nguTrump uqobo , uNeil Gorsuch no-Amy Coney Barrett, bajoyine iqembu elikhulu kanye nabahluleli abathathu abakhululekile kanye noRoberts, bakha ubumbano olungavamile enkantolo eneningi eligcina imithetho. UClarence Thomas, uSamuel Alito, noBrett Kavanaugh bavote ngokumelene nesinqumo, bethi i- IEEPA iyakuvumela ukukhokhiswa kwentela futhi bexwayisa ngokuthi lesi sinqumo ngeke sivimbele umongameli ekusebenziseni amanye amathuluzi asemthethweni afanayo.
Ukubuyela emuva kwezomthetho okungokomlando… kanye nohlelo lukaTrump olusheshayo B
Ku-White House, lesi sinqumo simelela ukuphindisela okukhulu kwezomthetho esikhathini sesibili sikaTrump kanye nokushaya okukhulu ohlelweni lwakhe lwezomnotho, okwenze intela yaba yinto ephawulekayo. Umongameli ngokwakhe wayexwayise esidlangalaleni ukuthi ukunqotshwa eNkantolo Ephakeme kungaba " inhlekelele ephelele " engaphoqa izwe ukuthi likhokhe imali eningi eqoqwe ngentela engasebenzanga.
Lesi sinqumo sivula ithuba lokuthola izimangalo eziningi ezivela ezinkampanini nakubangenisi abakholelwa ukuthi bakhokha intela engahambisani nomthethosisekelo. Izinhlangano ezifana ne -We Pay the Tariffs , ezimele amakhulu amabhizinisi, kanye nezinkampani ezifana ne -Costco zase ziqalile izimpi zomthetho futhi manje zifuna ukubuyiselwa kwemali “okugcwele, okusheshayo, nokuzenzakalelayo” kwentela eqoqwe ngaphansi kwe-IEEPA. Ezinye izilinganiso zisikisela ukuthi ukubuyiselwa kwemali okungenzeka kungaba phakathi kuka-$170.000 billion no-$240.000 billion, yize inani lokugcina lizoncika ezinqumweni zezinkantolo eziphansi.
Nokho, uTrump ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi akananhloso yokubuyela emuva. Ekuveleni kwakhe eWhite House , ubize lesi sinqumo ngokuthi “ siyadumaza kakhulu ” futhi wasola abahluleli abasekela isinqumo sokuba “yihlazo” ezweni. Uphinde waphakamisa ukuthi inkantolo ithonywe yizintshisekelo zakwamanye amazwe kanye “nenhlangano yezepolitiki” encane, okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukungqubuzana kwezikhungo phakathi kwamagatsha aphezulu kanye namagatsha ezomthetho.
Cishe ngesikhathi esifanayo, umongameli wamemezela intela entsha yomhlaba wonke engu-10% kuzo zonke izinto ezingeniswayo, ayiveza njengenye indlela "esemthethweni ngokuphelele". Ngenxa yalokhu, uhulumeni manje usethembele kuSigaba 122 soMthetho Wezohwebo ka-1974 , ovumela ukuthi intela efinyelela ku-15% ibekwe isikhathi esiphezulu sezinsuku ezingu-150 ngaphandle kwemvume yephalamende. UTrump ngokwakhe uphakamise ukuthi angakhuphula leyo ntela ibe ngu-15% "ngokushesha."
Phakathi naleso sikhathi, i-White House ihlela ukuqala uphenyo olwengeziwe ngaphansi kwezinye izinhlaka zomthetho—njengezigaba 301 no-232 noma ngisho nezinhlinzeko ezindala zoMthetho Wentela ka-1930—ukuze inikeze ukwesekwa okuhlala njalo kohlelo lwayo lwentela. Ngamanye amazwi, intela engu-10%-15% izosebenza njengebhuloho lesikhashana ngenkathi uhlaka lwezomthetho lwakhiwa kabusha.
Ukulawulwa kwamandla kamongameli kanye nesibonelo esingokomthetho
Ngaphandle komthelela wezomnotho osheshayo, isinqumo seNkantolo Ephakeme sihunyushwa njengesikhumbuzo sesimiso sokuhlukaniswa kwamandla e-United States, ikakhulukazi maqondana nokuthi ubani onezwi lokugcina ezindabeni zezimali nezokuhweba. UMthethosisekelo ugcina lokho okubizwa ngokuthi " amandla esikhwama " - ukulawula intela nokusetshenziswa kwemali - kwiCongress, futhi inkantolo yanquma ukuthi iGatsha Eliphezulu alikwazi ukuthatha lo msebenzi ngokusebenzisa umthetho ophuthumayo njengendlela emfushane.
Ochwepheshe bezomthethosisekelo bagcizelela ukuthi lokhu kubeka isibonelo esicacile mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamandla aphuthumayo emkhakheni wezomnotho: kusukela manje kuqhubeke, ngeke kwenzeke ukuthethelela impi yentela yomhlaba wonke ngokubiza "isimo esiphuthumayo sezomnotho" ngaphansi kwe-IEEPA. Noma yimuphi umzamo wokubeka intela ebanzi kumele usekelwe kweminye imithetho yezohwebo noma ekugunyazweni okucacile okuvela kuCongress.
Lesi sinqumo sinomkhawulo ngamabomu: inkantolo ayihlolisisi ezinye izindlela zomthetho uhulumeni angazisebenzisa, kodwa imane ivala umnyango we-IEEPA njengesisekelo sezindleko ezinkulu, ezisebenza kuwo wonke umuntu . Ngamazwi kaRoberts, ukwamukela incazelo ebanzi ekhuthazwa yi-White House bekuyosho " ukuguqulwa okukhulu kwegunya likamongameli " kwinqubomgomo yezohwebo.
Lesi sinqumo sigujwe yiqembu eliphikisayo lamaDemokhrasi. Umholi weSenate Iningi uChuck Schumer usidumise ngokuthi “ ukunqoba kwezimali zabathengi baseMelika ” futhi wasola intela kaTrump yokunyusa izindleko zokuphila, ebeka ingcindezi kumabhizinisi amancane nakubalimi, kanye nokwandisa ukungazinzi komnotho. Abamele izinkampani ezincane ezimangalele uhulumeni nabo basidumise lesi sinqumo njengokunqoba ngokumelene nokuqongelela kwamandla eWhite House.
Ngokombono wesikhungo, abahlaziyi bayavuma ukuthi lesi sinqumo siqinisekisa ukuthi ukuhlolwa okusebenzayo kanye nokulinganisela kuyaqhubeka nokusebenza ohlelweni lwaseMelika, ngisho noma iNkantolo Ephakeme eneningi labantu abagcina imithetho kanye nomongameli owayezimisele ukwandisa amandla akhe okuphatha.
Izimakethe zezimali, izinkampani kanye nemiphumela yezomnotho jikelele
Ukusabela kwemakethe kulesi sinqumo kwaba ngokushesha. Ukulindela kokunciphisa intela okungenzeka kwandise izimakethe zamasheya, ikakhulukazi emikhakheni evezwe ekuthengeni okushibhile, kuyilapho izinzuzo ze-US Treasury zikhuphuka njengoba abatshalizimali bebeka intengo ephansi yentela evela kumanani. Inkomba yedola yehla isikhashana ngaphambi kokuzinza.
Eqinisweni, intela ibe nomthelela ongaqondakali ekusebenzeni komnotho wase-US. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inyuse kakhulu imali engenayo yentela , eyafinyelela esicongweni samaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30.000 ngenyanga ngo-2025 futhi isebenze njengesivikelo esiyingxenye ekulweni nokuntuleka kwemali okuphezulu . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubonakala sengathi ayinciphisi ngokusobala ukuntuleka kwemali yokuhweba : ukungalingani okuphelele kwezimpahla kusalokhu kuphezulu kakhulu futhi kushintshe kancane eminyakeni yamuva nje.
Ezinkampanini eziningi ezingenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe , amanani entela asebenze njengentela eyengeziwe edluliselwa emananini aphezulu okugcina . Amaqembu amakhulu abathengi kanye nezimboni—abakhiqizi bamathoyizi, izindwangu, izinto zikagesi, imishini, izimoto, kanye nefenisha yasekhaya—abike ingcindezi emaphethelweni futhi ahlele kabusha izintambo zawo zokuhlinzeka, efuna abahlinzeki emazweni angajeziswanga kakhulu.
Izinhlangano zebhizinisi ezifana neNational Retail Federation kanye ne -U.S. Chamber of Commerce zamukele lesi sinqumo njengethuba lokunciphisa izindleko nokukhuthaza ukukhula okukhulu, uma nje inqubo yokubuyiselwa kwemali ilula . Eqinisweni, ziphikisana ngokuthi ukubuyiselwa kwemali kufanele kusetshenziswe njengesikhuthazo sokutshala imali kabusha emisebenzini, emisebenzini, kanye namanani ancintisanayo.
Kodwa-ke, izazi zezomnotho ezivela emabhange nasezikhungweni zocwaningo zixwayisa ngokuthi umphumela omuhle ungaba wesikhashana . Uhulumeni unezinsiza eziningi onazo—Izigaba 301, 232, 122, kanye nezinye izimiso zentela—lapho angakha kabusha khona udonga lwentela , mhlawumbe ngokusatshalaliswa okuhlukile phakathi kwamazwe nemikhakha, kodwa agcine izinga eliphezulu lokuvikela uma kuqhathaniswa neminyaka edlule.
Umthelela nokufunda okuvela eYurophu naseSpain
EYurophu, isinqumo seNkantolo Ephakeme kanye nokuphendula okusheshayo kukaTrump kubhekwa njengenhlanganisela yokukhululeka nokukhathazeka . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubonakala sengathi kuhle ukuthi uhlelo lwezobulungiswa lwase-US lunciphise ukusetshenziswa ngokweqile kwamandla ezimo eziphuthumayo futhi lwaqinisekisa isidingo sokuhlonipha umthetho . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isimemezelo esicishe sihambisane nesikhathi sentela entsha yomhlaba wonke engu-10% siqinisekisa ukuthi ingozi yokuhweba ye-EU isalokhu ingokoqobo kakhulu.
UMengameli waseFrance u-Emmanuel Macron ugcizelele indima yokuhlolwa nokulinganisela kwentando yeningi , egubha ukuba khona kwenkantolo ekwazi ukuvimba izinqumo ezizimele. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ucele ukuthi ubudlelwano bezohwebo bulawulwe yimithetho elungile futhi bungashiywa ngaphansi kwezinguquko ezisheshayo ezishiwo yiWashington. Umyalezo wakhe, oye wazwakala eBrussels, uhlanganisa ukuqashelwa kwezikhungo kanye nesicelo esicacile sokuqapha okuhlelekile.
I-Italy, yona, ibize umhlangano nezinkampani ezithumela kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuhlolwe umthelela wentela entsha engu-10% ekuthengisweni kwayo e-US, ikakhulukazi emikhakheni ebalulekile njengezimoto, imishini, imfashini, kanye nokudla kwezolimo. Umhlangano, oholwa nguNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle, uhlose ukulinganisa izingozi nokuhlola izimpendulo ezingaba khona ezihlelekile emazingeni kazwelonke nawaseYurophu.
ESpain, isimo siyinkimbinkimbi. Ngesikhathi sesigaba esinzima kakhulu sempi yezohwebo, imikhiqizo eminingi yaseSpain ibhekane nentela elinganiselwa ku-15% , okwakhulisa izindleko zayo emakethe yase-US. Imikhakha efana nokudla kwezolimo, iwayini, uwoyela womnqumo, imikhiqizo yezimboni, kanye nezimpahla zabathengi ibilokhu iqaphela kakhulu lezi zinguquko. Ukuqedwa kwentela okuyingxenye kunikeza ithuba lokuphumula, kodwa inhloso eshiwo yokugcina intela yomhlaba wonke engu-10% nokusebenzisa ezinye izinsimbi zomthetho kugcina isimo singaqinisekile kakhulu.
Abahlaziyi eYurophu bagcizelela ukuthi lesi sinqumo singaba yithuba lokuxoxisana phakathi kweBrussels neWashington. I-EU ibilokhu iyisisulu sezinsongo ezithile zentela, kusukela ezimotweni kuya ezimpahleni ezihlobene nezingxabano zobuchwepheshe noma zesimo sezulu. Isimo esisha sezomthetho singasebenza ekuvuleni kabusha izingxoxo ngobudlelwano bokuhweba obuzinzile, yize ukuphikelela kukaTrump ngentela njengethuluzi lezepolitiki kusikisela ukuthi kungenzeka kube nezingxoxo ezinzima.
ILatin America, i-Asia kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kohwebo lomhlaba wonke
Nakuba ukugxila kweYurophu kucacile, isinqumo seNkantolo Ephakeme siphinde sibe nemiphumela ejulile eLatin America nase-Asia , okuzogcina kuthinte izintambo zenani ezixhumana nezinkampani zaseSpain nezaseYurophu. Amazwe afana neBrazil neMexico ayephakathi kwalawo athinteke kakhulu yizintela nezinyathelo ezihlobene nokulwa ne-fentanyl.
EBrazil, isilinganiso sentela esisebenzayo sokuthunyelwa kwayo e-United States sifinyelele ngaphezu kuka -20% , uma kuqhathaniswa namazinga angaphambilini angaphansi kuka-3%. Ukuqedwa kwentela esekelwe ku-IEEPA kunciphisa kancane lokhu kucindezela, kodwa intela entsha yomhlaba wonke engu-10% kanye nokwenzeka kwezinyathelo ezengeziwe zemikhakha kunciphisa ububanzi bokukhululeka. EMexico, ukuqedwa kwentela ethile ehlobene ne-fentanyl kunikeza impumuzo ethile, yize intela ezimotweni nasezintweni zayo — ezibalulekile ngaphansi kwe-USMCA — isasebenza ngezinye izindlela zomthetho.
E-Asia, ukusabela kube ikakhulukazi ukulinda nokuqapha . Ohulumeni abanjengobaseJapane , abafinyelele esivumelwaneni sokunciphisa amanani entengo efanayo ezimpahleni zaseJapan (kufaka phakathi izimoto), bayaqiniseka ukuthi lesi sinqumo ngeke sibeke engcupheni izibopho ezenziwe. Imithombo esemthethweni ikhombisile ukuthi amaphrojekthi okutshalwa kwezimali amabili azoqhubeka ngenxa yokubaluleka kwawo kweqhinga, kodwa bayavuma ukuthi ukungaqiniseki komthetho kuye kwanda.
I-Taiwan , eyayithole ukwehliswa kwentela kusuka ku-20% kuya ku-15%, ilindele umthelela omncane ovela kuntela entsha ejwayelekile engu-10%, kodwa igcizelela ukuthi okubaluleke kakhulu kuyo kuzoba ukuvikela intuthuko ezinzile yomnotho wayo . ENingizimu Korea , uhulumeni ugcizelela ukuthi isivumelwano sokuhwebelana samazwe amabili sisasebenza, yize evuma ukwanda kokungaqiniseki okuphathelene nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe emakethe yase-US.
Amanye amazwe ase-Asia, njenge- Indonesia neMalaysia, akhethe ukuqinisa ubudlelwano bawo bezohwebo obuhlukahlukene futhi agcine izingxoxo ezivulekile neWashington. Umqondo uwukugwema ukuthembela ngokweqile emakethe eyodwa endaweni lapho ukuvikela kukhula khona futhi imithetho ingashintsha ngokushesha.
ISpain ne-EU babhekene nesimo sentela ephezulu kanye nokungaqiniseki
Ngokombono waseYurophu naseSpain, isinqumo seNkantolo Ephakeme asisho ukuthi kuzobuyela ngokuzenzakalelayo " ekujwayelekile kwezohwebo " okwakukhona ngaphambi kokuhlasela kukaTrump ngentela. Iningi labahlaziyi liyavuma ukuthi, noma ngabe isilinganiso sentela esisebenzayo sase-US sincishiswa okwesikhashana—ezinye izilinganiso zisibeka cishe ku-6,5% uma kuqhathaniswa no-13,6% wamanje—izinga lizobe lisaphakeme kakhulu kunasekuqaleni kuka-2025 futhi, noma kunjalo, lingabuya uma izinsimbi zomthetho ezintsha sezihlanganisiwe.
Ezinkampanini zaseSpain ezinentshisekelo e-United States, inselele enkulu akuyona nje izinga elithile lentela, kodwa ukuguquguquka komthetho . Izinguquko ezisheshayo emithethweni, izinsongo zentela entsha yemikhakha, kanye nokwenzeka kokuthi izimboni ezithile—isibonelo, izimoto, iwayini, imikhiqizo yokudla kwezolimo, noma izimpahla zezimboni —zidinga isu lokwehlukahlukana okuyinkimbinkimbi kanye nokuphathwa kwezingozi.
Ochwepheshe bezohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe basikisela ukuthi, esikhathini esifushane, izinkampani eziningi zingasheshisa ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla, zisebenzisa ithuba lokungaqiniseki okuzungeze izinsuku zokuqaliswa kwezindleko ezintsha kanye nethuba lokubuyiselwa kwemali. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izitayela eziqale eminyakeni yamuva ziyahlanganiswa, njengokufuduka kancane kokukhiqiza, ukuqina kwezintambo zokuphakelwa kwesifunda, kanye nokugxila okukhulu ezivumelwaneni zokuhweba ezihlukile.
Kulesi simo, i-European Union kanye namazwe angamalungu afana neSpain abhekene nenkinga yokuqinisa izinqubomgomo zawo zokuhweba noma ukukhetha inhlanganisela yokuqina kokuzivikela kanye nokuvuleleka kwamasu. Impendulo evela eBrussels izoba nomthelela oqondile ezinkampanini zaseYurophu kanye nekhono le-EU lokuthonya ukwakhiwa kabusha kwemithetho yomhlaba wonke yomdlalo.
Isahluko esisha esivulwe yiNkantolo Ephakeme yase-US asisho ukuphela kwesikhathi sentela ephezulu, kodwa sibeka umkhawulo obalulekile ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla ezimo eziphuthumayo okungalawulwa futhi siphoqelela uTrump ukuthi asebenze ngaphakathi kohlaka lwezomthetho olunemingcele kakhulu. EYurophu naseSpain, lesi simo esivelayo singesinye sobudlelwano bezohwebo obusalokhu bushubile ne-United States, obubonakala ngentela ephezulu, ukungaqiniseki okukhulu kwezomthetho , kanye nokuhweba kwamazwe ngamazwe okubonakala sengathi kuya esigabeni eside sokwanda kokuvikelwa kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwezinketho zenani.
